The victory of eccentric Muslim rival Donald Trump in the American presidential race is considered one of the most significant risks the world can face, according to the findings of the British Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). This research firm warns that Trump could disrupt the global economy and weaken US national security and policies.
IN 2016 global risk ranking The EIU uses a scale of one to 25 and Trump is rated 12, similar to the "growing threat of jihadist terrorist attacks."
2016 Global Threats Ranking
10. Price shock in the oil market
4 points in the rating were assigned to a possible price shock in the “black gold” market due to a decrease in investment in production.
9. Military operations of China in the South China Sea
This threat scored 8 points. While China is building up its military presence on the disputed islands, the offshore of which are rich in oil, the White House administration is trying to diplomatically and mobilize a military coalition with the participation of Japan to curb Beijing's aspirations. But until now, the Chinese tiger has only frightened the American eagle.
8. Withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU
This event, according to EIU analysts, is unlikely and scored only 8 "threatening" points. A referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union is scheduled for June 23, and if the majority of Britons vote in favor, it will be the greatest adventure of the century, according to David Cameron.
7. Destabilization of the world economy due to the actions of radical Islamists
This threat, which received 12 points, belongs to the risks of medium probability. However, Russia's successful actions in Syria, as well as the efforts of the US-led coalition, could make it “unlikely”.
6. Election of Donald Trump as President of the United States
The EIU does not expect US presidential candidate Trump will become the new head of the White House when he has an adversary like Hillary Clinton, but there is a risk of such an outcome (12 points). And Trump's chances will be greatly enhanced in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn.
5. Withdrawal of Greece from the Eurozone
This event, the probability of which is high (15 points), can lead to a further collapse of the currency union, and, as a result, negatively affect the global financial system.
4. Debt crisis in the euro area
The aggravation of the economic problems of the European Union due to the invasion of migrants, budget deficits of some EU member states and a crisis of confidence increase the chances of a prolonged recession and further split in the EU (15 points).
3. Debt corporate crisis in the markets of developing countries
It is quite probable risk (16 points) due to the climax of currency volatility.Volatility is a “litmus test” of a securities or currency market; it shows the level of its volatility in a certain period.
2. Russia's intervention in Syria and Ukraine
Where in the top three global security threats, but without the Russians. In 2014, after Crimea joined Russia, the EU countries and the main stronghold of world democracy imposed sanctions against Russia. And the Russian military presence in Syria and participation in the conflict in Ukraine extremely complicates the relationship between the West and Moscow, as was the case during the Cold War. EIU experts estimate the likelihood of a new "cold war" at 16 points.
1. Slowdown in the Chinese economy
The realization of this economic threat, estimated at 20 points, could lead to a further decline in the prices of raw materials, in particular metals and oil. And it could hit hardest in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. And since many Western retail chains and manufacturers depend on sales in China, the stagnation in the Chinese economy could have a bad effect on the economies of the United States and the European Union.