Residents of countries belonging to the European Union do not feel completely safe. This is evidenced by the report prepared European Council on Foreign Relations (ESMO). It was compiled from interviews with policymakers and members of the analytical community, as well as extensive research in the areas of policy documents, academic discourse and media analysis.
The report says that the EU is currently facing security threats from the east and south, and cannot fully rely on an ally in the West. After all, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly neglected international agreements and norms that are important to Europeans.
And here are the top 5 worst perceived threats to the EU member states.
5. Uncontrolled migration to the country
Eastern and southern Europeans are especially concerned about uncontrolled migration to their countries. Slovenia, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece, Malta and Italy see it as the most significant threat they face.
The main fear is not that terrorists will enter Europe via migration routes (although some of those interviewed expressed concern about this as well), but rather that migration will create devastating political consequences in the EU. The problems highlighted by the majority of the respondents from the 17 EU member states is the inability of their governments to control the number and type of refugees arriving in Europe.
4. External interference in domestic politics
Estonia is one of only two EU member states that consider external interference in domestic politics as the most significant threat to their security. Lithuania is another country that has announced this. Latvia also agrees with its neighbors, which, in addition to external interference in internal affairs, is still afraid of cyber attacks.
3. Deterioration of the international institutional order
Luxembourg sees the deteriorating international order based on rigid rules as the main threat to its security
Denmark is also concerned about the potential collapse of the European Union and the deterioration of the international order.
The upcoming Brexit of Great Britain also plays an important role in the negative expectations of Europeans. Nearly two-thirds of survey respondents assumed that the UK's withdrawal from the EU would have a negative or very negative impact on their security.
2. State collapse or civil war in a neighboring state
This threat is one of the most terrible for countries such as Great Britain, Poland, Greece, Spain, Romania, Slovakia, Croatia and Cyprus. In the case of Poland, the fear is caused by the possible collapse of the statehood of Ukraine, although Russia is considered as the most terrible enemy. The annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014 and the subsequent escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine only reinforced this perception.
Poland is the only EU member state for which interstate war is the main security threat. To prepare for this opportunity, the Polish government has decided to modernize the military, although this program is not going very quickly.
1. Cyberattacks
Cyberattack opportunity is the worst perceived threat in 2018. Large and / or successful EU member states (such as Denmark, Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom) are especially afraid of this. This concern is likely based on an awareness of their societies' dependence on digitized systems, as these countries are widely regarded as leaders on cyber issues in the EU.
- France and Sweden have made significant progress in developing cyber strategies.
- Denmark was the first EU member state to decide to appoint a digital ambassador.
- And the potential loss of cyber-collaboration with Britain after Brexit is causing concern among EU member states.
Respondents interviewed by ESMO stated that there are threats that could decrease in importance by 2028. These include:
- interstate war involving their country or allies;
- disintegration of the EU;
- power failure;
- financial instability.
They expect all other threats to become more serious in the next ten years.
There is no country more terrible than Russia
Among the three most dire international threats, according to the Europeans surveyed by ESMO, are jihadists, Russia and international criminal groups, and North Korea. ESMO survey respondents expect these threats to persist until at least 2028. Due to the events associated with the Crimean Peninsula, foreigners began to perceive Russia in a different way, considering it as one of the main threats of our time.
The fear of terrorism is strongest in large countries and in countries that have recently experienced terrorist attacks (Great Britain, France, Spain, Germany, Denmark and Belgium).
Fear of Russia is strongest in the east (Estonia, Romania, Lithuania, Poland and Finland), although Germany and England regard it as a potential threat.
Estonia and Lithuania are particularly concerned about the possibility of Russian interference in their internal affairs.