The day before presidential elections the traditional reshuffling of governor's seats is taking place. Is it possible to predict the path of an eagle in the sky, a snake on a rock, or a politician in the Russian Federation? Political analysts from Minchenko Consulting took up this non-trivial task and conducted a large-scale study, trying to determine which governors will not last long on the top of the political Olympus, and which will remain on it indefinitely.
Research methodology
The performance of officials included in the list of resilience of Russian governors was analyzed from January to August 2017 and evaluated according to nine criteria.
- The main one is the support of the governor by the so-called "Politburo 2.0", that is, the closest circle of the president's entourage.
- Another criterion is whether the governor is currently carrying out any major project.
- Next comes the degree of economic development of the region.
- The next criterion is the time of the end of the governor's term. It is clear that if the governor has just been elected, it is unlikely that they will be going to change him in the near future.
- The degree of individuality of the governor is also important (the more he differs from other officials, the better),
- The quality of political management is also taken into account.
- The researchers attached importance to the existence of quarrels between governors and those in power at the federal level.
- The eighth criterion is the presence of quarrels between the governor and regional officials.
- And, finally, the ninth point is the degree of interest in the governor (or his team) of power structures and the threat of criminal cases and arrests in the governor's entourage.
The more positive criteria a governor's career meets, the more firmly he is firmly established in his governor's office. But those under whom it has already reeled dangerously are listed below.
Rating of failed governors facing resignation
10. Georgy Poltavchenko (St. Petersburg)
Points: 8
The rating of unsuccessful governors of 2017 is opened by the former lieutenant general of the tax police and the current head of St. Petersburg, who replaced Valentina Matvienko in such a responsible post.
A small percentage of those who voted for United Russia, a low turnout in the elections and the scandal with St. Isaac's Cathedral - these are three pillars on which rumors about the possible resignation of Poltavchenko from the post of mayor of St. Petersburg are held. However, such conversations have been going on for a long time; back in 2014, many in Smolny expected that Poltavchenko would resign at the beginning of the summer. As a result, he received a mandate for five years of work.
9. Vyacheslav Bitarov (North Ossetia)
Points: 8
Bitarov's press service claims that the rumors about his resignation are not true.And the trip to Moscow, suggestive of the length of his governorship, could only turn into ordinary participation in the meeting.
8. Pavel Konkov (Ivanovo region)
Points: 8
On the eighth line in the top 11 governors who may face resignation in 2017 is the head of the Ivanovo region. This is an economically weak region, in addition, over the past few years, several corruption scandals have thundered in it in connection with the arrest of regional officials.
7.Alexander Berdnikov (Altai)
Points: 8
Berdnikov's governorship was undermined by suspicions of economic fraud, as well as a love of drinking and careless statements. This summer, the head of Altai used obscene language about the Altai and threatened the local blogger with criminal prosecution. What can you do, the wrong people went to many governors.
6. Svetlana Orlova (Vladimir region)
Points: 8
Orlova herself would like to return to Moscow, but there was no place for her, and several influential people are not ready to see her there. She may have to remain in the post of governor of Vladimir for another year or two.
The main complaint against its administration is the excessively protracted construction of a school in the Vladimir microdistrict 8-YW. Despite the fact that officials received 582 million rubles from the regional budget for "school needs", the first contractor "Glavpromstroy" tore off all construction schedules, and as a result it was mothballed. Now half of the school buildings lack walls. However, in a conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Svetlana Yurievna promised that the facility would be commissioned on time.
5. Vladimir Miklushevsky (Primorsky Territory)
Points: 7
Perhaps Miklushevsky will soon follow his colleague Vladimir Shantsev from the Nizhny Novgorod region. Experts from Minchenko Consulting predicted a quick resignation and at the time of publication of the report their forecast was confirmed - on September 26, Shantsev was dismissed. But the governor of the Primorsky Territory still has to "sit on suitcases." Either the "jacket for 500,000 rubles" spoiled his image so much, or the lies about the New Year's Eve in Vladivostok, and not in Dubai, or the terrible situation on the labor market, because Primorsky Krai "collected" 15% of all wage arrears in Russia. Or perhaps the fact that two of his five deputies are under investigation has played a role.
4. Marina Kovtun (Murmansk region)
Points: 6.
Experts have doubts about the strength of Kovtun's position. She may be involved in money laundering under the cover of charity, and Irina Yarovaya also wants to govern as governor. According to unconfirmed information, the Murmansk governor has already announced his resignation, although Kovtun herself refutes these speculations.
3.Alexander Karlin (Altai Territory), Victor Nazarov (Omsk Region)
Points: 6.
Searches are in full swing in the administration of the governor and the government of the Altai Territory. And there are already contenders for an appetizing piece of the pie in the form of the governorship of the Omsk region: apart from Gazprom, these are the siloviki, Rostekhovites and (unexpectedly) Russian Railways. Which of these forces will win is unknown.
And Nazarov, having completed his task, that is, having transferred all the gas distribution flows of the region into the hands of Gazprom, simply became unnecessary. Recently, he is simply passively observing the situation from the outside.
2. Vladimir Gorodetsky (Novosibirsk region)
Points: 5.
The head of the Novosibirsk Territory is on the second line in the rating of Russian governors who received a “red card”. Like his colleague Viktor Tolokonsky (Krasnoyarsk Territory), Gorodetsky was not close enough to the "Politburo 2.0". And if the head of the Krasnoyarsk Territory on September 27 has already made a statement of resignation, the head of Novosibirsk is still holding on. But for how long? So far, he is engaged in his governor's affairs - communicating with journalists, deciding the issue of the "garbage concession", and is not going to "comment on gossip" (as he himself put it). By the way, rumors about his resignation circulated back in April 2017, but did not come true.
1. Alexey Orlov (Kalmykia)
Points: 4
The leader of Kalmykia is in the first place in the lists of governors from the risk group. This is one of the most unfavorable regions of the Russian Federation from a financial and economic point of view, and constant budget embezzlements only worsen the situation. Only last year, a criminal case was opened against the former Deputy Prime Minister of the republic, Larisa Vasilyeva. And rumors about Orlov's resignation have been circulating for many years.
The most effective governors, the version of "Minchenko Consulting"
As for the heavyweight governors who are unlikely to leave their posts in the near future, analysts at Minchenko Consulting refer to them as Sergei Sobyanin, Anatoly Artamonov, Alexey Dyumin and Yevgeny Savchenko, and of the younger politicians - Andrei Vorobyov and Dmitry Kobylkin. Sobyanin, Kobylkin and Dyumin scored 19 points for "stability", Savchenko and Vorobyov - 16, and Artamonov - 15.