A decade from now, the world's largest economic centers will look very different than they do today. China will dominate the world, India will overtake the United States, and Egypt's economic growth will be strong enough to make it one of the world's top ten economies. These are the forecasts of Standard Chartered Bank, a British multinational banking and finance company.
Visual Capitalist has compared Standard Chartered Bank's projections for 2030 with the latest IMF GDP (PPP) data for 2017.
| A place | Country | GDP Forecast (2030, PPP) | GDP (2017, PPP) | The change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | $ 64.2 trillion | $ 23.2 trillion | +177% |
| 2 | India | $ 46.3 trillion | $ 9.5 trillion | +387% |
| 3 | United States | $ 31.0 trillion | $ 19.4 trillion | +60% |
| 4 | Indonesia | $ 10.1 trillion | $ 3.2 trillion | +216% |
| 5 | Turkey | $ 9.1 trillion | $ 2.2 trillion | +314% |
| 6 | Brazil | $ 8.6 trillion | $ 3.2 trillion | +169% |
| 7 | Egypt | $ 8.2 trillion | $ 1.2 trillion | +583% |
| 8 | Russia | $ 7.9 trillion | $ 4.0 trillion | +98% |
| 9 | Japan | $ 7.2 trillion | $ 5.4 trillion | +33% |
| 10 | Germany | $ 6.9 trillion | $ 4.2 trillion | +64% |
PPP (PPP) - purchasing power parity.
Top 10 largest economies in the world in 2030
Forecasting methodology
Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank made their conclusions after examining countries' exchange rates in terms of purchasing power parity and nominal GDP.
In the future, emerging markets should catch up with developed countries, which is explained by their convergence in GDP per capita. In other words, as a country's production begins to match its population, it can mean a lot when it comes to densely populated countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Egypt.
Evolve, multiply and prosper
According to Standard Chartered, Asian economies will be on the rise in the next decade, and will occupy the majority of the ten largest economies in the world.
Last year, the Asian piece of the global GDP pie grew to 28%, up from 20% in 2010. It is likely to reach 35% by 2030, which is in line with the rates of Europe and the United States combined. And this is not surprising. The total world population is expected to exceed 8.5 billion by 2030. Moreover, the majority (about 5 billion) will live in Asian countries.
At the same time, Standard Chartered predicts that the majority of the world's population - about 5.4 billion people - will enter the middle class in terms of income by 2030. For comparison: in 2015, there were only three billion people in the world who could qualify for entering the middle class.
Both China and India are projected to overtake the United States as the world's largest and second largest economies, respectively. The United States will drop to third place.
Egypt starts and wins
Of all the countries on this list, Egypt has the brightest predictions. He will make the biggest "economic leap". According to Standard Chartered experts, the only Middle Eastern country in the top ten will move from the 21st place of the world's most developed economies to the 7th place over the next decade. This spurt coincides with a 30 percent increase in the country's population to 128 million by 2030.
In other words, Egypt's economy will grow by 583 percent between 2017 and 2030. And the country's GDP over the same period will increase from 1.2 trillion. dollars to 8.2 trillion. dollars.
What awaits the Russian economy by 2030
But with the Russian economy, not everything is as good as with the Egyptian. The Russian economy is expected to fall from sixth to eighth on the list.
- However, Standard Chartered experts reassure that our country's economy will still grow at a significant rate, despite Western sanctions.
- According to the economic forecast of the World Bank, published in January 2019, the GDP growth rate of the Russian Federation is expected to grow to 1.8 percent in 2020 and 2021.
- According to the International Monetary Fund, Western sanctions will be offset by rising world oil prices. This will have a positive effect on the Russian economy.
- According to a report by Standard Chartered Bank, Russia's GDP will amount to $ 7.9 trillion by 2030.
conclusions
From this study, it can be understood that the global economy is rebuilding rather quickly, causing changes that require a response from any rational investor trying to maximize long-term returns.
Simply put, if countries like China, India, Brazil, Egypt, and Russia are on a solid and long-term growth path, it makes sense to invest to participate in that growth.
If Standard Chartered's forecasts come true, then countries such as Canada, France and the United Kingdom will be knocked out of the top ten world economies.